ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the Brucellosis incidence and to predict the trends of the disease in Shanxi province and the national in recent years,which could provide the reference for surveillance,prevention and control of the disease.Methods Brucellosis data which was reported monthly during January 2006 and December 2010 in Shanxi province and the data released by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention during January 2005 and December 2010 were collected.Several indexes,such as the annual increasing number,the development rate,growth rate and other indicators were applied to compare Shanxi province with the national Brucellosis epidemic in recent years.What's more,the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was fitted respectively with the data of Brucellosis incident number reported monthly,so as to predict the prevalence status in the coming two years by verifying the fitting effect.Results Brucellosis prevalence of Shanxi province reached the peak in 2008,and the incidence number was 5397,which was 900 more than 2007.From the onset of decline after 2008,the prevalence decreased by 17.67％ (906/5128) in 2010.However,national incidence of Brucellosis kept increasing before 2009 and the prevalence increased rapidly from 2007 to 2008,and the growth rate reached 39.16％ (8442/21 560).Although the number of Brucellosis fell by 2041 cases in 2010 than in 2009,the rate of decline was only 5.14％(2041/37 734).The fastigium of Brucellosis was from May to July yearly whether Shanxi province or the country.The ARIMA models of Shanxi province and the nation were ARIMA [(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12] and ARIMA[(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12],respectively,according to the incidence numbers reported monthly.The fitting effect of models showed that the predicted values of the two models were both consistent with the actual situation and all predicted values fell within the 95％ confidence limits,which depicted that they both fitted well.The predicted values depict that the incidence of Brucellosis overall trend was basically stable in Shanxi province,while the numbers in the nation would increase in a small extent in 2011 and 2012.The fastigium of Brucellosis was still from May to July yearly.Conclusions Brucellosis control measures are effective in Shanxi province,incidence of Brucellosis declining.The ARIMA model could predict the number of Brucellosis well,which can provide a valuable reference for the predication and evaluation of Brucellosis epidemic in the future.